Inconvenient Truths Are Helpful Reminders

Inconvenient truths. By now, it's an overused phrase, most attributed to former U.S. Vice President Al Gore and his book and movie about global warming and the failures of U.S. environmental policy.

But Inconvenient Truths also is very relevant to the Middle East time and again. The most glaring example is news about autocratic Arab leaders and their largely disfunctional, disappointing governments -- "inconvenient" to hear because many in the West prefer the stability of such leadership to the uncertainty that could follow their demise.

As the Middle East Contrarian, I'm all about sharing inconvenient truths -- facts that people would prefer not to hear but, indeed, need to hear for there to be any progress toward a solution to the problems that pervade the Middle East. And what better time to once again stand true to this guiding principle than on one's birthday.

Today, I'd like to share the contents of two editorials from today's newspapers in Israel. The first reminds us of the futility of diplomatic efforts to persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear program. While some people cross their fingers hoping -- or worse, thinking -- that such efforts will succeed, us realists know already this is unlikely and wait patiently for the others to come around. The problem is waiting affords Iran additional time to develop nuclear weapons and further delays real, preventative action.

Israel's daily Ma'ariv considers recent US statements that have downplayed the possible need for military action against Iran in light of what the leaked cables have said regarding Arab countries' warnings and fears over Iran's nuclear project: 'The clear conclusion is that the chance that the US will attack – or support an attack on – Iran is close to nil, and this assumption must cause us all to lose sleep. Israeli decision-makers must internalize this picture of the situation, make decisions based on realistic options and rely less on hopes that America will take part in any solution vis-à-vis Iran.'

Today's Turkey is a huge disappointment. Liberals look to Turkey as a beacon of hope among the Muslim world, as a bastion of relative moderation. The "inconvenient truth," however, is that Turkey sadly no longer merits such distinction, and we ought to come to terms with that and act accordingly with policies that might convince the Turks to change course. The second editorial, from Israeli daily Yediot Achronot, addresses this issue:

The WikiLeaks documents have only confirmed US and European fears over the dangerous regime that has taken power in Turkey.... Turkey, under its current Islamist government, has been drawing ever closer to 'the global axis of evil' and the US and Europe [ought] to treat it accordingly. '[Turkish Prime Minister] Erdogan himself misses no opportunity to wildly incite against Israel. Europe has already changed its attitude toward his regime, and today, it has no chance of being accepted into the EU. The time has come for the US Congress to treat the growing Turkish threat with utmost gravity.'