Will Clinton's Message to the Palestinians Get Through?

In a press conference in Washington with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Palestinian President Abbas, Secretary of State Clinton reportedly said:

Your leaders may be sitting at the negotiating table, but you [the people of the Middle East] are ultimately the ones who will ultimately decide the future. [sic]

She's right. With regard to the Palestinians, it's not Abbas's signature on some piece of paper that's going to bring peace, but whether or not the Palestinian people are ready to put the conflict behind them. Their leadership, however, has a responsibility to prepare them for conflict-ending concessions and coexistence with Israel. Clinton's message is a good first step, but the question is, Will it get through? We were reminded this week that at least some of the Arab press cannot be counted on to deliver it.

Egypt's state-run newspaper, al-Ahram, doctored a photo of President Obama and Middle East leaders at the White House recently to depict Egyptian President Mubarak leading the others down a hallway, rather than walking last which was the real situation.

It's just the latest illustration of how messages intended for Middle East audiences are shaped by autocratic leaders and their government-controlled media. And it reflects the challenges that may lie ahead in reaching out to the Palestinians to condition them for peace. Palestinian leaders -- and not U.S. leaders in Washington -- ultimately will have to do that themselves.

Palestinian Negotiator Moonlights As Times Headline Editor

The following is an unpublished letter-to-the-editor of the New York Times:


September 7, 2010

Dear Editorial Page Editor:

I somehow missed the press release announcing Palestinian peace negotiator Nabil Shaath’s appointment as Times headline writer.

“Settlements in West Bank Are Clouding Peace Talks” [September 3, 2010] quotes Shaath as saying, “The climate [in recent talks between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Palestinian President Abbas] was positive, but the cloud is still there. The Israelis gave absolutely no hopeful signs that they will continue the moratorium [on settlement building].”

Rather than pin the fate of the talks on Israeli policies, the larger mystery and threat is whether the Palestinians now are prepared to make conflict-ending concessions. Netanyahu adviser Zalman Shoval says the Palestinians’ refusal to recognize Israel as a Jewish nation-state “more than any other thing is the most tangible obstacle” to peace. In his memoirs released last week, Quartet envoy to the Middle East and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair writes, “If the Palestinian cause gave up violence emphatically and without ambiguity, there would be a peace agreement within a year.”

Netanyahu says Israel will go “a long way” toward achieving peace – presumably, including concessions on settlements. The real “cloud” is whether Palestinian leaders still lack the courage to prepare their people for decisions required of a final deal. According to a recent poll, only a third of Palestinians see negotiations – vice violence – as the best means to an agreement.


Sincerely,


Jess M. Sadick

Gaza War Cost Hamas Support

While the popular press continues to insist that Israel's recent military campaign against Hamas in Gaza bolstered the group's popular support, a new Palestinian poll reveals the exact opposite.

According to a report in the Jerusalem Post, the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion finds that some 27 percent of Gazan Palestinians support Hamas after the war, compared to 51 percent in November.

Meanwhile, support for Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah party in Gaza climbed to 43 percent from 31 percent in November. In the West Bank, Fatah holds a 16 percentage point lead over Hamas in popularity, 39 percent to 23 percent.

It is also noteworthy, and unfortunate, that some Gazans simply are too scared for their lives to share their opinions publicly. Said one man, "If I talk about this, I'm afraid that Hamas will come and kill me."

What does all this mean? For one thing, that exacting a military price from Hamas for its continued attacks on Israel can, albeit slowly, erode its popular support. With time, Palestinians will tire of the conflict and rise up against those who wish to perpetuate it.