Not an Encouraging Start

Ok, here is my letter to President Obama advising that all this high-level attention to Israeli settlement policy is a very, very bad idea:

June 3, 2009

Hon. Barak Obama
President of the United States
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20500


Dear Mr. President:

Regarding your initial forays into Middle East peace-making, predominant attention to Israeli settlement policy is ill-advised and will prove counter-productive.

As demonstrated in Gaza, dismantling settlements or otherwise curtailing settlement activity is ineffective in assuaging Palestinian demands or encouraging Palestinians to compromise. Refocusing attention on Israel and settlements signals to Palestinians that the need for Palestinian reforms is less urgent. Though you may continue to highlight the need for such reforms, putting settlements first gives Palestinians an excuse to delay any actions of their own. Indeed, as Palestinian President Abbas recently told the Washington Post, he will not intervene with Arab leaders to encourage relations with Israel.

The Bush Administration was mistaken in taking a perceived quick path to victory in Iraq – that is, the military ouster of Iraq’s leadership – rather than the slower path of nurturing political change from within Iraq. Similarly, the longer but surely more effective way to reach a secure and lasting peace between Israel and Palestinians is to increase, not lessen, pressure on Palestinians for accountability, transparency, and counter-terrorism. Unfortunately, only after years of stagnation, and in the face of continued advancement and progress elsewhere in the world, will increasing numbers of Palestinians demand more effective leadership and recognize the need to make compromises for peace.

Your advisers are mistaken in calculating that focusing attention on settlements will win Arab support and Palestinian concessions. Rather, such a policy will only result in further Palestinian intransigence and expectations of more U.S. pressure on Israel. On the other hand, if you maintain focus and pressure on Palestinians to reform and meet their previous commitments, their leadership may not immediate oblige but the Palestinian people, in order to have a better life, will eventually demand of their leaders more reasonable policies. This is the proper, though admittedly more difficult, path to Middle East peace, and if none of your advisers have shared this perspective, then you ought to replace them or seek more diverse input.

Thank you for your time and attention.

Making Excuses for Iran

In a news article today, the Washington Post reports that Iran has cut back on some of its nuclear activities, though it continues to make progress in other areas of its nuclear program.

By highlighting areas that suggest Iran is rethinking its nuclear ambitions and de-emphasizing those areas that demonstrate otherwise, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the news media follow the example set by a U.S. Office of National Intelligence report last year which said Iran had "halted" its nuclear weapons program in 2002 0r 2003, when in fact it was only a temporary tactic.

By cherry-picking facts and using half-truths, critics of a more aggressive stance toward Iran hope to recruit others to their cause. Their efforts, however, are extremely dangerous, as they lead others to a false sense that the Iranian nuclear program is not an urgent threat. Such interference makes it more difficult to confront Iran on this issue.

Even IAEA head El-Baradei is contributing to efforts to pull the wool over our eyes, when he said: "[The Iranians] haven't really been adding centrifuges" [for uranium processing].

Well, either they have or they haven't. El-Baradei's attempts to obscure the truth are shameful.

The Dilemma Facing the Israeli Left

In an interesting editorial today, the Israeli daily Yediot Achronot calls for dramatic change among Israel's two major left-wing political parties. Their quandary, it sounds, is much like that facing U.S. Republicans -- how to find a new message that resonates with the populace.

The collapse of the Labor Party and of Meretz in the recent elections is so dramatic that it must lead to a genuine shake-up in the Zionist Left...to stop devoting all resources to the Palestinian issue.

For too long, left-wing Zionists have fixated on a "peace process" with the Palestinians while completely ignoring reality. That reality -- over the last nine years, in particular -- has been that the Palestinians are unprepared to compromise on anything while demanding more of Israel, literally. Yet, left-wing Israeli Zionists still aim to forge a peace deal. Instead, they've lost all credibility, as shown in the February 10 balloting.

Former Labor party leader and current Israeli President Shimon Peres's contrition regarding his support of a Gaza withdrawal sets the right tone.

[Gaza] should have been done otherwise. I was for leaving Gaza. I consider myself as one of the persons mistaken.

Left-wing Israeli would do better to refocus their energies on other, domestic challenges facing Israel. Meanwhile, Israel's soon-to-be, right-of-center coalition government will work to ensure Israeli security until Palestinians are truly ready for a productive peace process.

UAE Gets Away With Turning Away Israeli Athlete

Officials in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, citing security concerns, say they have refused entry into the country to a female Israeli tennis player.

It should be clear to anyone that this is not the real reason. Rather, she was turned away because the UAE seeks to protest Israel's recent actions against Hamas in Gaza.

The World Tennis Association (WTA) says it had warned the UAE after the UAE previously denied entry to other Israeli athletes and that it had expected the UAE to work out appropriate "security" arrangements. The WTA is reviewing what to do after the most recent incident but says the current competition will go on.

The WTA and the international community should not buy the UAE's excuses. They should press the UAE to explain any aleged security risk and demand that appropriate security be afforded all athletes or the competition will be canceled. It is time for the international community to publicly repudiate such inexcusable Arab behavior.

Editorial Urges Pressure on Egypt's Mubarak

Kudos to the Washington Post for today's editorial calling upon President Obama not to invite Egyptian President Mubarak to Washington unconditionally.

If he does, the administration will send the region the message that the corrupt old status quo -- in which the United States backed Arab dictators in exchange for help with U.S. strategic interests -- has been restored. That would inflict crippling damage on Mr. Obama's attempt to restore U.S. credibility and prestige, particularly with the millions of secular, middle-class Arabs who chafe under corrupt autocracies.

With Bush gone, it is important that Washington continue to call for political reform in Arab countries. Not that Bush was so successful in this regard, but at least he raised the issue for at least a while. Obama, too, needs to recognize that Middle East stability and the fight against terrorism depend upon spreading freedom in the Arab world. U.S. relations with the Arabs need to be conditioned on measurable progress in this regard.

Gaza War Cost Hamas Support

While the popular press continues to insist that Israel's recent military campaign against Hamas in Gaza bolstered the group's popular support, a new Palestinian poll reveals the exact opposite.

According to a report in the Jerusalem Post, the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion finds that some 27 percent of Gazan Palestinians support Hamas after the war, compared to 51 percent in November.

Meanwhile, support for Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah party in Gaza climbed to 43 percent from 31 percent in November. In the West Bank, Fatah holds a 16 percentage point lead over Hamas in popularity, 39 percent to 23 percent.

It is also noteworthy, and unfortunate, that some Gazans simply are too scared for their lives to share their opinions publicly. Said one man, "If I talk about this, I'm afraid that Hamas will come and kill me."

What does all this mean? For one thing, that exacting a military price from Hamas for its continued attacks on Israel can, albeit slowly, erode its popular support. With time, Palestinians will tire of the conflict and rise up against those who wish to perpetuate it.

Hamas Caught Sneaking Cash Into Gaza

It's happened before and should come has no surprise again now.

In November 2006, Reuters reported that two Hamas members were caught trying to smuggle $4 million in cash from Egypt into Gaza.

According to a news report by the Associated Press, Hamas negotiators who had been in Cairo to work out a cease-fire deal with Israel tried to return to Gaza today with suitcases stuffed with between $7-9 million dollars.

Hamas needs the money -- badly. They reportedly have promised to compensate Palestinians in Gaza who lost homes or relatives in the recent fighting. Paying these people off is critical to Hamas's ability to maintain popular support. If it weren't for such bribes, then maybe Palestinians in Gaza would reject terrorists for their leaders.

But not even $9 million will be enough for Hamas to make good on its promises. To do so, Hamas will need $20,604,430. Future attempts to smuggle cash are guaranteed to occur.

According to news reports, Hamas has promised the following payments, in Euros:

Destroyed House: 4,000 @1,885 houses
Badly Damaged House: 2,000 @ 2,200 houses

Dead Relative: 1,000 @ 1,000 persons
Anyone Injured: 500 @ 5,500 persons

Total Cost = $20, 604,430.